Mar
15th
2016
Partial withdrawal of Russian Armed Forces in Syria? · 6:41am Mar 15th, 2016
Wow. Interesting. What kind of game are we (not) seeing here?
Although, if that actually helps to ultimately finish that goddamn civil war and restore peace in Syria, then hey, it's cool. Maybe this time Assad and others will actually talk and come to a compromise? Lord knows everyone has had enough.
Still, TBH, kinda too early in my opinion, too many possibilities to further fuck up the situation. Anyway...
That is the interesting question. Why would Russia put themselves on Assad's side of things when the US was helping the rebels?
What would anyone gain from a effective stalemate?
3810777
That would depend on whether what we perceive as stalemate is actually a stalemate... There have been so many behind-closed-doors talks, I don't think we can really know what is going on.
Russia went on Assad's side, as far as I am aware, due to a combination of the following factors:
1) Assad family have been friendly towards Soviet Union in the past, and Bashar has enjoyed Moscow's diplomatic support since the very beginning of Arab Spring - if you recall, Russia vetoed the Security Council resolutions that could be twisted into the same pretext that was used to bomb Libya and worked to create a solution to chemical weapons problem when Obama was drawing "red lines".
2) Russia has the last naval base-of-sorts in Mediterranean, and losing it is a great hit against strategic interests and Putin's political capital. And there is no guarantee that whoever replaces Assad won't throw us out. Islamists certainly wouldn't just let us stay... unless they were amenable to a hefty bribe.
3) A good number of Russian citizens (mostly Chechens) slipped into Syria and joined ISIS or similar groups. Eliminating them before they gain combat experience and return to wreak havoc in Caucasus or somewhere else is pragmatic move I would expect of Putin.
4) Russia and US haven't been on good speaking terms since re-unification of Crimea with Russia, and methinks Putin would not miss a chance to throw a spanner into US' works. (Politics.) While US did support rebels, DOD did not risk giving them MANPADs to take down Russian planes - if that happened, the tensions would rise so sharply that the situation would become as unpredictable as during Cuban Missile Crisis. No one wants that.
5) Projection of power and military equipment testing. This is the first time Russian Armed Forces actually fought beyond the ex-USSR borders and with newer equipment to boot. While I don't believe that all equipment and armaments were modern, a sizable chunk had to have been.
6) From previous point, it stems that if projection of power was successful (and it was to a certain extent that people will evaluate later), Russia could generate some goodwill towards themselves, especially among countries that are not pro-US. At the same time, it might give both Russia and US a possibility to find a good enough compromise.
Well, that's what I can recall right now. Given that, apparently, more and more people from opposition are willing to talk with Syrian authorities, the participation of our pilots was not without results. Maybe the sides will finally make peace.
3810841
Time as always will tell
3810847
Indeed.
Although I really want it to be for better instead of for worse. The world is already crazy enough.
3810856
Always something to wish for