Myou've Gotta be Kidding Me

by DataPacRat

Noyaux

Without any internet, or even television or radio, newspapers were a handy way of watching for any happenings that escaped the reports of the Dairy's still-growing network. Or, at least, to get an idea of what the publishers thought about current events. Today's biggest headline was the debate in the Barn of Lords between the Greens and the Blues, who roughly split the votes between them, and were, very roughly, conservatives and progressives - though in a distinctly ponyish way. Even the progressives saw absolutely nothing wrong with the privileges they gained as nobles, and the staunchest conservatives were much more into providing social services than the Scandinavians of Earth. The current kerfluffle was between the National Service being promoted by the newly politically-active Blueblood, whose radical idea seemed to be suggesting that he was considering a switch to the reformers, whose caucus was already putting together a proposal for Voluntary Service, while the other party simply sniped at both ideas.

The second story was that Princess Luna had expressed a desire to seek the advice and suggestions of the non-noble ponies, and was assembling a conference to help determine the best way to re-convene the Commons given the changes in sensibilities since it had last met.

Over in the gossip pages, note was being made that the Pillar family of Roan was showing off how wealthy it was by completely demolishing their Canterlot estate in order to build a brand-new edifice, being designed by the hottest architect - were new manses going to replace airships as the new form of flaunting?

In the business pages, there was talk about some proposed dairy subsidies, which I had rather mixed feelings about. For one, the money raised would go directly to helping cows such as myself; for another, it was exactly the sort of 'help a small group at the expense of the whole' politics which led to thousand-page tax codes and the rich having all sorts of loopholes to exploit at the expense of everypony else.

Lifestyle: How to find a qualified surveyor to check if your basement can qualify for a Bronze-shelter or better tax break.

Ads: Pepper spray, so ponies of all sorts can feel safe walking through Canterlot at all hours. Self-defense courses also available.

In short, pretty much ever single item in the paper, I knew more about than the reporter did. I supposed that was one measure of progress, of a sort.

---

The Pegasus Express brought me a piece of time-sensitive news; the Duchess, Alabaster Pillar, mother of Marble Pillar, was traveling from their family estate on Roan to Canterlot. While the network was functioning exactly as designed, it was still early days - and so I was only getting the information an hour ahead of Alabaster's arrival. Still, that was an hour more than I would have had otherwise. Just to be on the safe side, I announced to The Dairy that we were having a security drill, and to get ready for an attack both from external forces and from hidden infiltrators. (I'd taken the list Marble had given me of her infiltrators, and gently nudged all those ponies into their own, separate section, where they were free to chase each others' tails all they wanted. But that didn't mean other nobles hadn't acquired their own moles.) Just because Marble had tried to arrange for me to become a holey cow didn't mean that Alabaster would do anything similar - but just in case she would, well...

Micro Scope had been working on a delivery mechanism to install in the Alicorn for jellied flammable oil - why yes, I did enjoy the smell of napalm in the morning - but when the drill started, her first job was locking down the secret sections of the labs and getting the ponies working there to safety. Page Turner had a similar task, only focusing on the various pieces of classified documentation floating around. Red Pepper kept aerial overwatch - I still hadn't gotten any wireless telegraphy to work, but she carried a lantern with a shutter to flash an Equestrian version of Morse code. Safe Guard was theoretically in charge of preparing a counter-attack, and I acted as general staff to create an organized response to anything unexpected... and I decided that the two of us should try a reconnaissance of the "opposing force".

We made it to the train station just a few minutes before the train from Roan arrived. Amongst the various guards, servants, luggage-handlers, and various hangers-on was a mature mare, a white-coated, white-maned unicorn, with a near-invisible white cutie mark; her identity was confirmed when Marble Pillar appeared, and pressed necks together in a light hug. As they broke, Alabaster looked in my direction, and if I wasn't mistaken, smiled. She spoke to one of the aforementioned hangers-on, who approached Safe and I.

Her accent wasn't Canterlotish, but still seemed highly affected. "The Duchess invites you to speak with her at your convenience."

I glanced at Safe, shrugged, then looked back at her. "There's no time like the present. Perhaps as soon as she's had a chance to go to the Roan house in Canterlot and unpack?"

She looked a bit uncomfortable. "She, ah, has chosen not to disturb the renovators, and will be residing at the Draycolt Hotel for the duration of her visit."

"The Draycolt it is, then."

---

Another hanger-on looked down her snout at Safe, then at me. "There is no need to bring your guard into the presence of the Duchess."

"That's an interesting opinion," I commented. "If there were, say, at least a one-in-twenty chance that an assassination attempt would be made upon the Duchess in a meeting, would she consider a guard necessary?"

"That is a gross insult to-"

"Are you familiar with LaPlace's Sunrise Formula? I may be getting the name wrong."

"Excuse me?"

"You are excused. It's a piece of math that tries to answer the question, if all you know is how many times the sun has risen so far, what are the odds of it rising tomorrow? It's a very simple piece of math, generalizable to many situations which only needs two inputs - the number of opportunities there have been for something to happen, and the number of times it has happened. I have had fairly few dealings with Roan and its agents so far, and at least one has involved an attempt on my life. Mathematically, there is a far greater than five percent chance that somepony will try to kill me before I leave."

"How dare you-"

"The formula is the number of successes, plus one, divided by the total number of opportunities, plus two. I have encountered Roanish and Roanish-hired ponies perhaps a total of a dozen times so far. Do you need me to lead you through the computation?"

An amused voice came from inside. "Oh, do let them in, Clarice."

Reluctantly, the obstacle (whose name, I guessed, when spoken unaccented, was 'Clear Ice') backed out of our way, and we cautiously entered the lavishly-decorated sitting room, which contained a suit of armor in each corner (presumably containing live ponies), Alabaster and Marble reclining on couches, and a third such couch facing them. I opted to stand.

Alabaster said, "You really must forgive her," and she stopped when I raised a hoof to interrupt her.

"I really don't," I said back.

There was a brief silence, and then Alabaster sighed. "Perhaps not. Is this really how you feel about us?"

"I am entirely willing to extend trust and the benefit of the doubt to anypony I meet. I have this tendency to retract all such unearned trust at the first attempt on my life."

"Ah." Alabaster looked at Marble, who squirmed a bit, then back at me. "Is there anything I can do to regain such trust?"

"That depends. Are you willing to allow your daughter to face charges of conspiracy to commit first-degree murder in a court of law, and whatever the sentence is, permit it to be performed?"

There was a long silence. I finally broke it by saying, "In that case, if the rule of law is not an option, then we revert to the rule of pony - whichever pony has the power, makes the rules. Have I made it sufficiently clear that any attempts on my life can be met with disproportionate retaliation?"

"You are referring to the 'curse' placed on the Roanish Demesne in Canterlot?"

"If that is what you are calling it, yes."

She frowned a bit, then asked, "Is there a way to remove it?"

I tilted my head, considering, then straightened. "If you haven't already heard, I prize honesty very highly, and try to tell the truth in all situations-"

"-Save for when violence or saving lives are involved."

I nodded. "So I trust you will believe me that I was in something of a hurry, and so was, how should I put it, slightly sloppy. I was trying to strike a balance between having nothing at all happening, and having the entire Demense burn to the ground with all inside. What I ended up with was... slightly stronger than I had intended."

Dryly, Alabaster said, "I understand that my daughter has turned into a sea-pony three times this week alone."

Marble muttered, "I hate swimming..."

I cleared my throat, continuing, "That said - yes, I do know of a way to remove what you call the 'curse' completely, instead of merely offering a cure to affected ponies as they ask me for it." Both of them brightened. "But, at present, I do not know of any reason to do so."

Marble glared at me. "But what about that list I gave you? And-"

I glared right back. "That was the price of the cure, not the removal."

Alabaster gently cleared her throat, drawing our attention away from each other. "Perhaps a reason can be arranged?"

I looked at her, and said, simply, "Perhaps. But I'm not sure you can provide a sufficient reason."

The Duchess looked at her daughter. "Dear, perhaps you should go check on the obvious excuse to get you to leave."

The corner of my mouth twitched, Marble blinked, and then she grumblingly left the hotel suite.

Alabaster looked after her, and said, "Children," with a sigh. Then turned back to me. "Now that it's just we adults - what is it that you want?"

I hesitated, frowning, before finally saying, "While I know the answer to that - telling you isn't as easy as you think. I could describe some of my short-term goals, at the risk of misleading you about my long-term ones. Or I could give a short description of some of my long-term goals, but doing so runs the risk of insulting you. Or I could take the time to fill you in on some of the background of my long-term goals, minus the details that would endanger some of my information sources, though that might take a while."

"Well, when you put it that way, of course I have to hear the whole thing."

"Alright." I paused a moment to try to organize my thoughts. "To start with - what would have happened had the current Bearers of the Elements of Harmony failed to stop Nightmare Moon?"

"Then I doubt either of us would be here talking now - with an eternal night, all the crops would die, and everypony would have long since starved."

"Perhaps it might interest you to know that one of the projects I'm overseeing involves the creation and growth of crops using artificial light sources, requiring no sunlight whatsoever."

"Really, now." She gave me a more speculative look.

"Quite so - we're having some good success with an algae-based life-support system, but, needless to say, few ponies enjoy the taste. Still - if I had started this program, say, five years ago, then while Nightmare Moon triumphant would have been a great tragedy, it wouldn't have led to the end of all life in Equestria. On the other hoof, if I had started that program, but then some young noble had arranged for my death before it finished, then there would have been a good chance all ponies would be dead."

"So... you are preparing in case Princess Luna becomes Nightmare Moon again?"

I shook my head. "You're thinking far too small-scale. That is simply a single scenario which leads to the end of all pony-kind; there are many, many more that I can think of in moments - and even more that cannot be described at all, before they happen. But an interesting thing about the known dangers is that making preparations for any one of them tends to increase the odds that we can survive any of the other known dangers - which at least implies that such preparations may also help deal with unanticipable dangers, as well."

"So... you are making plans to ensure Equestria's survival? That seems simple enough, and didn't take long to explain."

I smiled. "That is merely the grand overview. Going into details is... complicated. As just one example - I'm only a single cow, and can only spend so much time working on solving such problems. It would be very useful to have a large number of ponies who are able to perform similar work. However, in order to do so, ponies need to have a certain minimal level of education - a level higher than is commonly achieved. And so it is worth my while to take some time away from my immediate researches, in order to push for the longer-term goal of having more ponies who can take some of the load from my shoulders."

She began eying me with an odd sparkle in her eyes. "And the Barn of Lords has just started debating ways to fund an increase to education without raising taxes. I think I begin to see a hidden hoof behind some of the news."

My smile got wider. "I can neither confirm nor deny any connection to such debates. To continue my point - would you accept that the current collection of noble houses could, perhaps, be described as having found various ways for their families to survive and prosper in the conditions that Equestria has enjoyed for, oh, the past millennium?" She considered that, then nodded. I continued, "And if conditions were to suddenly change, so that those time-tested solutions no longer applied - and, in fact, did more harm than good?"

She frowned. "I do not see where you are going with this."

"It's simple enough; if a new Discord-level disruption happens, then what ponies will need to survive will be a certain... flexibility, the ability to stretch their imagination to try new things which were previously unthinkable. Having a social system allowing for rapid adaptation to new conditions, even if doing so leads to certain entrenched interests losing the advantages they've enjoyed for centuries."

Her gaze was flat. "Are you suggesting a revival of the pre-Equestrian earth-pony mob-ocracies, or the pegasus military hierarchy?"

"Not at all - unless those happen to be what works. Since you're bringing up pre-Equestrian societies, let's try this. Princess Luna and Princess Celestia, while unaging, are neither omnipotent nor unconquerable; what would happen if both of them were, say, gravely injured and unable to perform their most basic duties?"

Her forehead wrinkled. "I suppose... that the Barn of Lords would resume the task of the ancient Withergamot, and begin raising and lowering the sun and moon ourselves."

"One of the most powerful unicorns alive, the Bearer of the Element of Magic, has no title, no place in the peerage. Would the Barn refuse her assistance in keeping the celestial cycle in proper progression?"

"I... am not sure what you are driving towards."

"When one of the Princesses creates a new noble title, does that mean that the pony suddenly gains some prowess they previously lacked, or is it merely a verification of something inherent in that pony that already existed?" She stared at me silently. "Should a Princess strip a pony of a title, do they abruptly lose their magical power, or does their reduced political status simply reflect their innate nature?" I paused, waiting for a reaction; when none was coming, I drove the point home. "Having a title, a place in the Barn of Lords, is merely a recognition of noble status - but there are ponies who are just as noble who are not in the Barn, and ponies who do not deserve such titles who are."

"The Commons revival."

"Simply because the Barn, collectively, is the backup for the Princesses does not necessarily mean that they are the best at coming up with laws and budgets to present to them for Royal approval - nor does it mean that they will come up with all the ideas that are worth considering. A single idea may be all that stands between pony-kind's flourishing and its utter destruction."

"So you believe."

"So I believe. As I said, I have to be careful about what I tell you, in order not to endanger my sources."

"So I am supposed to just trust your word on it?"

I shrugged. "That's entirely up to you. Unlike your family, I have not betrayed the inherent trust ponies share in each other by arranging for your daughter's death - and I believe that I have demonstrated that I had ample opportunity to. Perhaps, at some point in the future - far in the future - you will have demonstrated enough strength of character to overcome the evidence I currently possess leading me to trust you as little as I do, and I might be more willing to place the fate of innocent, valuable ponies in your hooves. In the meantime - you have my demonstrated, and demonstrable, honesty to consider.

"Very well. The records describing you go back as far as your appearance in Ponyville. If you are so honest, will you tell me where you were before then?"

"Perhaps. Let's assume that I had a family who I care about - how much would their lives be put at risk by my saying who they were?"

She opened her mouth to respond, paused, frowned, and essayed, "I'm not sure. That formula you described to Clarice - does it apply?"

"It could - but that formula is merely an elementary starting point, most useful for ponies who know a little basic arithmetic. A much more powerful tool for such things is Bayes' equation, which itself is merely an approximation of Solomonoff Induction. But in this case, I think we can skip the math, and deal with it qualitatively. Say you knew a secret, which, if you told me, would put Marble in a slightly increased danger of being killed. Would you share that piece of information in casual conversation, without careful forethought?"

"Likely not." She paused, looking out a window, before turning back to me. "So far, you have said things which are disturbing, but not quite insulting. So I ask you to tell me - honestly - what have you been thinking of saying that you believed I would be insulted by?"

"Are you sure you want to know?"

"I don't see why not. Tell me."

"When I do not want to tell someone a truth, but the only consequences of learning it are to them, I double-check with them, and then have them ask me a third time."

"This is becoming tiresome. Tell me."

"You have asked me three times - well, told me to tell you, which amounts to the same thing. So I will." I pursed my lips, then explained, "In a certain rainforest, there is a sort of monkey, called the noyau, plural noyaux. They have abundant food, and no predators, so they don't have to spend any significant time foraging, or have to keep a lookout for danger. Instead, what they spend their time on is... social display. Each one spends all its time working to show off that they're bigger, better, and stronger than all the other monkeys. This has gone on for many generations - they know no other life, they cannot conceive of things being any other way. So when a family of predators does find the place and move in, or a volcano erupts... well, it doesn't go well for them. This is a pattern, a way that living things can organize themselves, and isn't limited to monkeys. Among certain fractions of Equestrian society, there is sufficient wealth that hunger is never a concern, nor do they perceive any danger from any outside force... all they see is each other - and so they spend vast fortunes on showing off to each other how big their fortunes are. They do not produce anything useful, anything which might actually help ponies survive in the face of the dangers they do not recognize. If these pony noyaux were to suddenly cease to exist, then the rest of Equestria would have a greatly increased chance of survival - not to mention increased prosperity. If you haven't felt any insult yet, the particular insulting detail is that, given the evidence I currently have available to me, the Roanish nobility are more likely noyaux than not."

"I'm not sure I've ever been insulted in quite so... scholastic a fashion before."

"You should be glad I stuck to mammals. There are plenty of other forms of life which I could draw comparisons to, but my doing so would likely lead to you blasting my head off before Safe Guard could twitch."

"We could hardly have that happen - it would cost a fortune to even try to cover up." She smiled at me. I didn't smile back. She sighed. "Perhaps that was in poor taste."

"'Perhaps'?"

"Regardless - there is still the matter of your curse on my Demesne, and what it would take to have it removed."

"I suppose there is."

"Can you give me an idea of what you would consider a fair price?"

"Hm... if I didn't do as you ask, how much would it cost you to rebuild?"

"A significant dent in our cash reserves."

"That sounds reasonable."

"You can't be serious - if I gave you that much, there would be no point in it. How about a smaller sum? Our loss would be your gain."

"What you're offering, I can get elsewhere - so I might as well ensure that my lesson to you remains as expensive to you as possible."

"Perhaps you don't understand - I am still offering you a million bits."

"And I thank you for that offer... because how many people have ever existed, who can honestly say that they've turned down a million bits on ethical grounds?"

She blinked, then chuckled. "Perhaps none at all, before today. But if mere money has no value to you..."

"I didn't say it has no value - just not enough value."

"Ah. Then what does have 'enough' value?"

"Can you offer me anything that will measurably increase the chances of Equestria's long-term survival?"

She paused, frowning. "I don't know."

"That's a start."

"Pardon?"

"Knowing that you don't know something is the first step to figuring it out."

"Hm. You do have the sound of a librarian. So if bits aren't what tempt you - perhaps books are?"

"Mm... I do have free rein of the Royal Canterlot Archives."

"Ah - but what about books that have never been put into those archives?"

"... you have my attention."

Comments

[Keairan]

Mmmm, more delicious rationalism and spymistress activities.

[steampvnc1880]

"Micro Scope had been working on a delivery mechanism to install in the Alicorn for jellied alicorn"

Should "alicorn" be petroleum?

Edit: Neverthemind, fixed while fimfiction was slow getting my comment up.

[Salacar]

Pfft, Griffin and all those other guys can just take a seat.

Saving Equestria? Missy's got this

[Forevermore]

920881 Not sure about that, as far as civilian leaders go Miissy's definitely got a hoof up on the rest of the Pieces, but we've yet to see how she handles military pressure. Just because you're good at one doesn't guarantee you'll be good at the other, case in point: the Roman Empire, prospered unparalleled during times of war, but once it stopped expansion the government began to crumble as their war-time economy evaporated and they proved unable to cope with the needs of peace-time.

[DataPacRat]

920287
If it makes you feel better, it took me ten minutes just to load up the page to do a read-through, and another ten to load up the edit-box to fix that particularly egregious error.

920549
You say that like it's a good thing...

920881

921234
Hm... don't forget, 'war is the continuation of politics by other means'. Whether Missy is up to dealing with those other means directly is still an open question - but as relevant data points, Missy's got a p-doc to help her deal with stress from over-work, Safe Guard recently graduated her from mere exercise to actual self-defense training, and she's got a generally human-derived mind rather than a cow-derived one. So there's at least the potential for her to accomplish something.
Of course, there's also the potential for her to completely and utterly fall flat on her face. And it has been a few chapters since I left off with a good cliffhanger... ( <--- closest emoticon-combo I can see to an evil laugh)

[AppleTank]

921351
Do Noyaux really exist? Or made up animal to demonstrate your point?

[AppleTank]

I just realized, Missy should really collaborate with Twilight with the "reality science" Missy does.

[DataPacRat]

921543
Noyaux are entirely real - though the word specifically refers to the type of social organization used by some primates, rather than the particular species. I first learned of them in this context from a short SF novel by Gordon R. Dickson, "Wolfling".

921557
And once Twilight gets back from trying to talk to Griffin, that's entirely a possibility.

[Blank!]

Bwahahahaha! Book! Books! AT LARST!

[coandco]

In the meantime - you have my demonstrated, and demonstrable, honesty to consider.

This paragraph needs a quote mark at the end of it, since you're switching speakers at the beginning of the next paragraph.