Well, that is about to be tested today, as the day of reckoning with emotions, which fell on a Sunday, has now come to end. The day flips over to Monday, marking 8 days since the beginning of this saga, and the day for game number five.
The extent of how much the ill feelings of yesterday have remained in the players is difficult to measure, at least from what can be seen right now. Some of them do feel better, uttering out sentences like "I just needed some time. It heals wounds."
Others feel doubtful or in-between. "I don't want to say it's impossible to get perfect, but part of me still believes that, and whatever way, I don't see it happening today, to be honest.", one player says. This state of mind appears to be common, as many of the other players nod yes in response to this sentence.
And then some of them never felt bad at all. One such player says "I don't really care about what happened in the last game. Let's just focus on this one."
One can only guess who has the best shot at the title.
Because, even if the players who felt bad have recovered, it might be reasonable to guess that they still underdogs against the ones who completely dodged the ill feelings, because, well, things do linger.
Only one way to know for sure, though!
But wait. There's more to it than that. What is separate from if a player feels good about this or not is whether they even should. Owning up to, you know, what happened in the previous games, the players experience a weird see-saw between confidence and no confidence.
"I want to say we have a good chance at ending it today, but at the same time, I don't want to say that."
"I agree. I'm not really much for superstition, but I feel like saying 'we'll get it this time' would be jinxing it."
"Same here, my fellow cautious player."
These ponies don't sound unreasonable. This whole competition had been full of rising, cheer-generating optimism that was then brutally crushed. Game after game, the players were rising the numbers like fire, only for it to suddenly burn out and leave the rest of the game to have static, similar scores. The concerns about this had been cooled down with the realization that the scores were still getting better overall compared to the preceding game, and as such, they would eventually get to the point of almost perfect. Sure enough, they did.
But then that brought a new wave of extinguished optimism. All that was needed to get a perfect game was just a little bit of a push, but it wouldn't budge. The players kept failing. Even when it was that close, with Autumn Apple having nine in a row, needing just one more ringer, she still couldn't pull it off.
Needless to say, more ponies than these three believe that getting excited will hurt their chances.
"Maybe the right way to do it is to be pessimistic?"
"Why not try it, at least? It sounds ridiculous at first, but considering what we've been through, I wouldn't hesitate to take it into consideration."
So yeah, a good chunk of the players have the thinking that feeling positive makes their game worse.
Meanwhile, other players are in the middle. They're holding out optimism, but cautiously.
"Look, let's not overlook the possibility that we could think we're about to get it and we don't. That has already been a reality plenty of times; there's no reason why it can't happen again today. But, I don't believe that telling yourself you can't do it is going to help you do it. When does that ever help? A middle ground is what we need."
Then, for the third category, some players really just seem to not care about that stuff. One such player being Autumn.
"I'm not going to think about what happened last time or anything like that. I'm just going to play and see how it turns out.", she says to one of her friends as they walk into the players' tunnel.
Out in the field, where Shoe Stadium is in the process of filling up with fans, the announcers don't want to make predictions of their own. Instead, they just ask the crowd.
"Will today be the day? Or will it be another disappointment?", the main announcer says.
"I'd rather not try and answer that question. I'll just wait for the result.", co-announcer Shoeshine responds.
"I agree.", the main announcer says back.
The crowd doesn't seem to have an answer to this question; many of them shrug or put their hooves to their faces for an extended period of time. They're not sure how to feel about the perfect game chances today either.
This game had a unique environment. The cautious optimism and such was nothing new, but today was different in that it was more widespread. Back in the earlier days, nopony other than Autumn Apple really considering dropping out of the competition for a gameplay reason. Sure, the feelings of yesterday have mostly waned off, but this was the first time it had been experienced by so many players. Prior to game three, the attitude of everypony other than Autumn was "Maybe next time."
But yesterday, "Maybe next time" was hardly spoken by anypony, and it still wasn't being spoken today. The pessimistic ones, despite not feeling as bad as before, were still feeling bad about the chances, thinking to themselves things like "I'm not going to win it. There's practically no chance." Then the optimistic ones were trying to keep their cools by saying "Hey, this happens." And then the numb ones were saying, well, nothing.
Looking at that, there are fairly clear-cut categories as to how any given player is feeling about this game's potential result. Whether a perfect will be seen today or not. There are the low ones, the middle ones, and the high ones.
And the ponies who are most likely to win the title, it's easy to guess what category they belong to.
The odd environment is about to be put into action as the stadium's iconic game horn sounds, beginning the fateful game five. Contestant #1, who was more in the optimism category but also felt a bit neutral, steps on to the familiar field and close to the memory-triggering stake.
Putting into use the phrases "Failures will happen" and "Let's just do it, don't overthink", a mixture of the high and medium categories, Contestant #1 tightly grips the starting gold horseshoe in his mouth, taking care not to let it slip around, angles his head so that there's not too much curve, and gives the sucker a throw.
It hits straight at the ringer! Perfect!
The same becomes true for his second, third, and fourth throws! Four in a row!
...But then, on his fifth throw, #1 makes a costly mistake. He takes the throw very quickly, scooping up the next shoe like a starving pony's spoon dipping into a delicious bowl of cereal. Then his throwing speed did not settle down from that at all. The amped-up force sent the horseshoe flying to the right, where it had practically no chance of making a ringer.
Upon observing the stake hit, Contestant #1 seemingly falls off a cliff into the pessimism category. "Oh, well I guess getting too excited affects things inside of the game too, huh?", he says as he sprints off the field.
Back in the darkness of the players' tunnel, the upcoming players don't think #1 ever really got excited, but they map out a plan to use his words to their advantage anyway. After all, they'll take anything they can get in order to achieve a perfect game.
"Take things slow.", Contestant #2 says to her fellow players as she heads for the lit-up pathway to the field.
At the stake, taking things slow, #2 gets one ringer, two ringer, three ringer. Four next?
Yes! Four in a row!
With her strategy appearing to be working, Contestant #2 cracks a smile on her face, building up optimism. But then she tries to shake it off (literally), concerned that it will negatively her game and prevent a perfect, as many players are.
Using this common technique, she takes her fifth throw, and wow, another ringer! That's more than #1 scored!
Will she get the sixth too? Aww yeah, she did!
That's six out of ten! Contestant #2 needs four more and she'll be the champion! She will be the one hoisting that trophy!
The pink mare with a yellow mane, who had been Contestant #2 for a while, takes her lucky seventh hurl, and, ooh, it was lucky! A bit shaky, but it makes the ringer!
Seven in a row now! Three more to go!
Just trying to keep her cool and not let her brain go too wild, #2 throws her eighth shoe.
Uh-oh. It looks a bit off to the right, and the spinning looks inaccurately timed...shoot, it's no good.
"What?", the mare shrieks. "W-w-what did I do there? I had the emotions perfectly under control, I took the throw just fine... hello?
"Oh... maybe it was that consistency thing! Ugh... whatever!"
Coming up with a game plan as he heads for the field, Contestant #3 thinks that #2 was primarily focusing on keeping her reactions in check, and less about her playing, and that was why she failed.
But on the other hand, she still made it to seven in a row, so it's not like the emotions could be overlooked at all.
Luckily for #3, he was in the neutral category, never experiencing a strong reaction to the last-throw miss of the previous game. So feelings might not matter too much in his case. He's just going to focus on the throwing.
Doing so, #3 gets a ringer. Then two. Three. Four. Five.
But six?
Somehow, no. The sixth throw results in a stake hit that can't be explained.
I mean, it really can't be explained. What could have possibly gone wrong there? The throw looked precisely on target, and it's not like #3 was experiencing anxiety or anything.
Contestant #4, who had been in the pessimism category, sees this unpromising play and thinks "Well, as Shoeshine said, only a robot could do this, and I'm not even that great, but I might as well play."
Stepping up to the stake with that kind of attitude, she doesn't even get to four in a row. Is that really a surprise?
Hopefully we'll get more confirmation on our suspicions in a bit, as Contestant #5 thinks similarly to #4. "Consistency really is the thing. Getting 10 gold ringers in a row requires ultra-accuracy that living creatures just don't have. I'm not going to win it; I'll just play for no reason!"
Result: not even three in a row.
As #5 returns to the players' tunnel, Contestant #6, noticing a sea of frowning faces that looked just like #5's, starts to sense a trend towards pessimism among the entire club. Whether that's accurate or not, she attempts to fix it.
"Everypony, listen to me. We can do this. Look at it this way: The fact that Autumn got to nine in a row and only just barely missed the tenth, that proves that it's possible. What's so far-removed about just one more, especially when it was that close? If it is possible to get that close to perfect, it's possible to get perfect."
#6's words do seem to perk up the disbelief-washed players a bit, however, some of them don't believe her, and upon it becoming rapidly remembered that the latter category of players there might have an advantage, because of optimism apparently hurting your chances, the players who were beginning to feel happier revert back to sad.
Hopefully #6 can avenge this. She goes to the stake.
Oh look, she just might do it! She accomplishes six in a row, fitting her number.
Now for the seventh throw!
...What? That - that's not even close! That throw failed by... um, quite a bit! It drifted off so far to the right that had it been a few centimeters further to that direction, it would have been a ground hit!
Unsurprisingly, many of her fellow players want to chalk it up to optimism, and are planning to let her know about that in the tunnel. But #6 just sees it as a slip-up that will happen in sports, and she vocalizes this before the other players can say "optimism."
"So my seventh throw wasn't good. I messed it up.", she says as she goes back into the players' tunnel. "But let me tell you, I would have failed earlier if I thought negatively. Pessimism gets you nowhere."
Of course, plenty of players don't see it that way, but they soon have that put into question when Contestant #7 goes to the stake. He had been very much on the optimism side, and is doing incredibly well. All his throws end up extremely on-point, more so than had been seen this whole competition. He makes it to seven in a row, all while saying "Yeah!", and "Let's do this!", between every throw.
But then he doesn't get eight in a row.
Okay, now this is just confusing. First it's bad to be overconfident, then it's bad to be underconfident. The solution there seems to be being neutral, but even when you're neutral, consistency is going to bite you. It did so to Contestant #7, after all his previous throws had been remarkably, unbelievably consistent. And apparently it can't be fixed.
What can possibly be done here?
Contestant #8, walking up to the stake, doesn't think anything can be done. "I have no confidence here!', he says into a microphone. "Because it's true! Only a robot can do this!"
Up high in the announcers' booth, realizing how far her over-the-top statement had spread, Shoeshine addresses it after the low-feeling Contestant #8 fails to even make it to three ringers in a row.
"Okay, look everypony. I don't actually believe that only a robot could get perfect.", she says. "I said that out of frustration, just like you guys said pessimistic things out of your frustration. It was knee-jerk. The fact that Autumn got so close last time proves that it's possible. So forget about my robot statement. I fully retract it."
So now here comes the conundrum of whether it's better to be confident or non-confident, and then the whole thing about consistency being impossible, even though Shoeshine retracted that statement... ugh, such a headache! What kind of game is this?
Well, there is now hope that a new game plan can be installed, as it is now Applejack's turn. Numbered Contestant #9, Applejack had been recently going through doubt as to whether playing in this competition was worth it, due to how long it had kept her away from her home and family. The hope is that the strong feelings generated by that situation will give her extra power that will lead to a perfect game. Surely missing your home pushes you to do the thing you need to do in order to get back there faster, right?
Applejack feels the same way. Upon her arrival at the stake, she thinks to herself "If ah want to go home, ah need to get this perfect game. Let's go, self."
Hmm, it could be working! Applejack manages five in a row; halfway there!
"Alright, let's just do this.", she says as she throws her sixth.
It's a ringer!
Trying for seven in a row, Applejack makes sure to stay in check. She holds the gold horseshoe to her chest and thinks "All you need to do is not get heated up. Just like on the farm, take it slow and you'll succeed."
When she's ready, Applejack tosses out number seven.
The throw looks on-point... oh, wait, no, now it doesn't. It's lowering too fast, and it's at a messy angle...
Oh, noodles. It's no good.
Looks like that didn't work after all...
Except, hold on. It still has a chance. Because there's another homesick pony in this competition: Rainbow Dash. She is in this situation too. Maybe the emotions felt from missing a Wonderbolts performance will propel her to a perfect game. Maybe it will work this time. But she's Contestant #12, so there's a few players going before her. Let's see if those ponies can make the homesickness strategy unnecessary.
Those players, Contestants #10 and #11; they can't really describe how they're feeling. Having had enough time to look at the rotating wheel of approaches their predecessors tried to use to no avail, and thus not being able to tell what is useful and what isn't, they can't come up with a game plan. There's too much to consider.
Despite no apparent pessimism or optimism (apparently) blocking their paths, neither of these two players can make it to six in a row. Maybe the lack of a game plan was the reason.
Now it's time for Rainbow Dash.
Hopefully, her desire to get back to her Ponyville team will help her in getting a perfect, as doing so will end the competition and allow her to fly home. And Rainbow Dash is a top-tier athlete, so why not?
She's doing well! Five, six, seven in a row. Seven in a row is more than most players this game.
Eight in a row now! First time today! Alright, just two more! Rainbow Dash could be the one!
Ringer number nine?!
....
Oh, come on!
Yep, you guessed it right. It's a stake hit. Barely. A little bit short.
"AGH!", Rainbow Dash loudly sounds out.
"Alright, now I don't believe it's possible either!", she shouts. "If anyone wants to prove that it is, you have to do it!"
She is technically right. We won't know 100% if a perfect game is possible until somepony does it.
Who will that somepony be, though?
Well, let's look ahead to the next contestant: Contestant #13, who is still Autumn Apple. She had grown fond of this placement.
Autumn, probably the most notable pony in this competition, feels absolutely nothing. Really, just nothing. Her brain video player shows a white screen. She's just going to play, and not think about anything else.
A new game plan could be used here. Autumn was the most recognizable pony in this competition for a reason. She had been through a emotional pond of mud; troubling reactions to crowd treatments, thinking about dropping out, the help event, etc. Even after desires to give up had been experienced by other players at this point, Autumn's situation is still unique, as she was the only one to need an organized help event, and had been through this longer. Autumn had something that none of the other players had.
As mentioned before, Autumn isn't thinking about that, but you don't have to be thinking about something for it to have an effect on you. And there's no doubt that Autumn's more-different-than-different experience of this tournament is having an effect.
Here she comes.
Her first throw is good. So is her second. In fact, they're great. Perfectly on point.
And then the third throw is the same. And the fourth.
She keeps it up! Five in a row.
Then she has more. Six in a row!
She doesn't stop! Now she has seven in a row! Eight!
Nopony but Autumn has ever gotten nine. Will she expand upon that further?
She does! Nine in a row!
At nine in a row, here we are. Once again, the one and only Autumn Apple is at this one and only moment. The moment where she has the chance to prove all the doubters wrong. To finally give the fans what they've been clamoring for. To satisfy their constant craving for that one last hole to be filled. To unveil the trophy that she will get to show to the world and then have for herself.
Not doing any heavy thinking, Autumn simply puts the moment into action. Surrounded by bleachers filled with completely silent, eyes-glued-to-her fans, standing right in the middle of this extremely intense, gut-wrenching moment, Autumn grabs the fate-sealing gold horseshoe in her mouth, gripping it tightly, very tightly. She turns her head to the left side, moves it back in a snap, waits until she's returned to a straight angle, and gives the shoe a release.
Here it is right here.
The potential. The possible.
Oh? Is it looking more possible?
Yes, it is! As gold horseshoe #10 flies toward the stake, it looks absolutely perfect. The middle of the shoe is hovering in a position where a trajectory arrow would show it landing right at the top.
Getting closer, it still looks perfect. No negative change; the shoe begins its descent exactly where it needs to. It shows no evidence of falling short.
Even closer, it still looks perfect...
It still does!
It's getting so, so close! Super close! It's almost there! And it looks like it's going to ring! Is this the one?! Is it?! Is it?!
...