For you TF2 lovers out there... Unusual Hat and Crate science. · 1:01am Jan 31st, 2014

first off: A crate opening simulator. Or, if you enjoy opening crates, a crate opening stimulator.

Well, this was interesting.

So, I decided to unbox every series until I recieved an Unusual. Here's the raw data for cost per hat (my cost, not hat worth).

1. Green Energy Hound Dog - $418.32
2. Cloud 9 Harmburg - $353.58
3. Circling TF Logo Pencil Pusher - $331.17
4. Terror-Watt Sergeant's Drill Hat - $390.93
5. Nuts and Bolts Nanobalaclava - $627.48
6. Cloud 9 Rather Festive Tree - $74.70
7. Massed Flies Brain Bucket - $2.49 (SKILLZ RIGHT THERE)
8. Circling Peace Sign Conquistador - $662.34
9. Steaming Your Worse Nightmare - $169.32
10. Green Confetti Salty Dog - $174.30
11. Aces High Crone's Dome - $102.09
12. Orbiting Planets Towering Pillar of Hats - $440.73
13. Green Energy Broadband Bonnet - $34.86 (Nice!)
14. Steaming Hotdogger - $136.95
15. Blizzardy Storm Pure Tin Capotain - $119.52
16. Nuts and Bolts Your Worse Nightmare - $953.67
17. Dead Presidents Chieftain's Challenge - $448.20
18. Miami Nights Vintage Tyrolean - $72.21
19. Circling TF Logo Hound Dog - $373.50
20. Bubbles Bear Necessities - $136.95
21. Vivid Plasma Crone's Dome - $916.32
22. Terror-Watt Professional's Panama - $134.46
23. Steaming Fed-fightin' Fedora - $42.33 (Super cheap winnings!)
24. Searing Plasma Handyman's Handle - $278.88
25. Steaming Tippler's Tricorne - $293.82
26. Miami Nights Cloud Crasher - $291.33
27. Searing Plasma Das Maddendoktor - $493.02
28. Sunbeams Steel Shako - $276.39
29. Steaming Brain Bucket - $29.88
30. Dead Presidents Bone Dome - $24.90 (WOO!)
31. Nuts and Bolts Tyrantium Helmet - $216.63
32. Haunted Ghosts Pyro's Beanie - $114.54
33. Scorching Flames Hound Dog - $9.96 (Hot dang, that's nice.)
34. Stormy Storm Texas Tin-Gallon - $313.74
35. Purple Energy Buccaneer's Bicorne - $338.64
36. Massed Flies Milkman - $79.68
37. Disco Beat Down Glengarry Bonnet - $251.49
38. Sunbeams Rebel Rouser - $52.29
39. Haunted Ghosts Cosa Nostra Cap - $124.50
40. Smoking Chieftain's Challenge - $47.31 (Cheap kill streak!)
41. Burning Flames Bombing Run - $37.35 (See? 2x cheap)
42. Stormy Storm Coffin Kit - $112.05
43. Sunbeams Demoman's Fro - $57.27 (Lower)
44. Burning Flames Fed-fightin' Fedora - $29.88 (LOWER)
45. Vivid Plasma Desert Marauder - $19.92 (LOW!)
46. Blizzardy Storm Le Party Phantom - $89.64
47. Circling Heart Well-Rounded Rifleman - $14.94 (WOW, not bad)
48. Nuts and Bolts Glasgow Great Helm - $17.43 (Hey, cool!)
49. Smoking Vintage Merryweather - $52.29
50. Purple Energy Galvanized Gibus - $57.27
51. Burning Flames Ye Oiled Baker Boy - $199.20
52. Purple Energy Federal Casemaker - $104.58
53. Disco Beat Down Industrial Festiviser - $92.13
54. Kill-a-Watt Pom-Pommed Provocateur - $498.00
55. Orbiting Planets Hive Minder - $87.15
56. Green Energy Glasgow Great Helm - $249.00
57. Dead Presidents Gridiron Guardian - $983.55
58. Roboactive Fed-fightin' Fedora - $19.92 (get your unusual for only 19.99!)
59. Circling Peace Sign Sober Stuntman - $266.43
60. Blizzardy Storm Tough Stuff Muffs - $64.74
61. Nuts and Bolts Bot Dogger - $79.68
62. Smoking Burning Bandana - $410.85
63. Scorching Flames Desert Marauder - $298.80
64. Scorching Flames Private Eye - $24.90
65. Steaming Metal Slug - $117.03
66. Purple Confetti Defiant Spartan - $2.49 (SKILLZ)
67. Stormy Storm Swagman's Swatter - $67.23
68. Green Energy Sergeant's Drill Hat - $403.38
69. Vivid Plasma Western Wear - $181.77
70. Aces High Backwards Ballcap - $82.17
71. Massed Flies Data Mining Light - $241.53

Phooooooo. My average unusual hat was around $200 per money spent on crates. But in total, if I wanted a strange from every series of crate, it would take me around $15000 if I got lucky (which if you look at the numbers above, I really did in some cases). Well, that's still a little bit of investment, but the TIME to gather every single crate series (plus some crates are more valuable than others due to their goodies) would be horrendous. How long would it take to open all of this?

$15315.99 total / $2.50 per key= ~6127 crates. Let's say each crate took approximately eight seconds to open (Five for the crate and Three for keys and crate matching).

6127 X 8 = 49011 seconds.

816 minutes

~13 hours of crate opening. Not counting bathroom, eating (But I do it PRO AND EAT WHILE CRATING (Not the thing to call PRO, bud)), showering (please, shower), etc. This process would be mentally exhausting, so add a few hours of sleep, rest, breaks, etc.

Things that could reduce the cost but increase the time? Stranges and hats can be sold for refined metal which can, in turn, be sold for more keys or crates (Heck, save yourself a few steps and trade for the crate numbers you want as you go!). Some stranges sell for a LOT more than others (Strange Kritzkrieg comes to mind. It was once/ possibly still is $80).

Key Sales. Just... Key Sales.

Also, some crates were holiday series, so you could only open these in a certain time of the year so if you planned poorly, you would have to wait much longer than 13 hours to get one unusual per crate series.

But would you profit?

You'd likely exhaust an entire crate series' numbers before you reached an unusual.

But would you profit?

It's very unlikely, but one could make a few small profits here and there.

But would I profit in total?

Maybe you come out on top by a few hundred dollars selling all the ones you don't want/ need, or a few thousand if you get really lucky or sold all of them (FOOL), but for the sake of realism you have much better things to do with your time.

Phoo. My most valuable strange I unboxed was ~$980 though :o

Have fun with this knowledge :D

~Cosmic

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